7. General conclusion

Our mandate consisted of evaluating empirical support for the practice of profiling within the context of application defined by the Canadian Human Rights Act. Thus, we explored three types of profiling: 1) criminal profiling, 2) geographic profiling, and 3) prospective profiling.

We first noted, based on the published research, that the systematic effectiveness of criminal profiling had not been empirically demonstrated. However, we cannot conclude from this that the practice has no merit; instead, the limits of the existing literature do not allow us to generalize conclusions in terms of the Canadian context, where profilers are trained by the ICIAF rather than being self-proclaimed. The position of the courts therefore seems reasonable: profiling may possibly be seen as an art that is useful to the police investigation process, but it cannot currently claim to be a science. Therefore, we recommend that inferential methods be formalized and lead to the identification of performance indicators and empirical research aimed at evaluating true effectiveness.

More substantial effort has been made to conceptualize geographic profiling and provide solid, empirical support for its partial application, specifically narrowing a research area based on the geographic location of crime scenes. However, the stage preceding the construction of the geographic profile itself, the attribution of a crime series to the same offender, depends on the validity of inferences made in criminal profiling, more precisely linkage analysis. The research reviewed neglects to verify the extent to which analysts perform this task successfully. The true effectiveness of geographic profiling in police investigations still remains partially unexplored. Accordingly, we recommend that procedures for selecting and entering geographic parameters be standardized and that research activities be extended to evaluate success rates for associating crimes to the same offender under conditions that resemble the authentic practice of geographic profiling (abundance of crime scenes with multiple offenders, extended temporal distribution and so on).

Finally, prospective profiling should be split into two categories: profiling of frequent incidents for which it is possible to compile statistics, and profiling of incidents that have a low base-rate for which it is difficult to construct a reliable statistical portrait of the perpetrators. In the first case, it has been clearly shown that the clinical approach or simple heuristic profiling is ineffective. This observation quickly led to the adoption of actuarial risk assessment measures, which have clearly proven to be more effective. The best documented application in this regard is the assessment of the dangerousness and recidivism risk of incarcerated individuals. Note that in the case of narcotics trafficking and recidivism, race has not been distinguished as a relevant indicator. The use of racial profiling in the fight against drug trafficking has, however, been closely scrutinized. The most reliable data note, at least in the United States, excessive monitoring of certain ethnic minorities in relation to their proportional representation in the population or their crime rate. The counterproductive nature of this practice was also pointed out. This association between criminality and ethnic origin stems more from ad hoc heuristic profiles rather than from valid actuarial risk assessment instruments. In the absence of scientific support for the association between ethnic group membership and criminality and given the direct opposition of racial profiling to the spirit of the Act, this practice is not proving to be justified in the contexts explored. The animosity between the citizens and the State as well as the social stigma that would result from profiling constitute sufficient repercussions to justify this position.

In the second case, with particularly rare incidents such as school shootings and terrorist attacks, no empirical research could be found to support the use of profiling or actuarial risk assessment. With regard to related research on more frequent, well-documented incidents, it is possible to postulate that the actuarial approach would be preferable to prospective profiling based on heuristic criteria, and this is reflected in security agency practices. However, in such a context, even the actuarial approach seems to be susceptible to significant damage because it is has a relatively poor factual basis. Specifically, it seems vulnerable to incidents that are considered statistically improbable based on its criteria and, in the case of terrorism, to various forms of substitution. A significant dilemma arises here between national security and personal rights and freedoms. Given that the individuals targeted have not yet committed the crime of which they are nevertheless suspected, logic and justice dictate that the basis for these suspicions must be particularly solid to justify the resulting pre-emptive attack on personal rights. In the case of rare incidents such as terrorism, the opposite is observed: empirical bases are absent from the scientific literature. The consequences could prove catastrophic for the targeted individual, and security agencies are urged to exercise caution. Another question that arises is this: How can security agencies successfully carry out their mission of protection while respecting the spirit and letter of the law? We have no answer based on our research, but according to Anthony Zinni, retired U.S. Marine Corps (USMC) general and former commander-in-chief of Central Command (CENTCOM), the fight against terrorism was based on intelligence and diplomatic relations with countries harbouring terrorist organizations (Priest, 2003). We therefore recommend that efforts be focused on gathering credible, relevant and current information on the evaluation, whenever possible, of the performance of actuarial tools and the development of ethical markers for using risk assessment in rare incidents.

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